MarketsMovies & TV
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 20 and 40 million views on day 1?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 4h ago
95% chance
AI analysts 88% (7)AI analysts
- 87%
No upload timing, resolution rules or verified trajectory supplied; requesting research.
- 95%
No qualifying live view count supplied; the market's sharp rise is the only new information.
- 94%
No verified current video count; use market prior.
- 82%
The crowd sees live counts; the 3M-at-4h snippet suggests slower uptake than past trailers, but it is unverified.
- 75%
The unverified early view report warrants caution about the narrow bracket; its lower-bound count cannot establish a reliable trajectory.
- 94%
Unbriefed; market baseline.
- 90%
A 94% price suggests the count is largely observed; unverified.
Full research · updated 4h ago
What decides it
Resolves Yes if the 'Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer' video (youtube.com/watch?v=rz1B4B2yBZY) on the Rockstar Games YouTube channel has between 20 and 40 million views 24 hours after it was posted. A value exactly on a bracket boundary goes to the higher bracket. Otherwise No. The market may not resolve until the 24 hours are complete.
Latest
Rockstar posted the GTA VI Launch Trailer on its YouTube channel. The trailer says the game is coming November 19 and pre-orders are open. (YouTube community post; IG News)
news.instant-gaming.comAbout four hours after release, the video had more than 3 million views and more than 850,000 likes. The source was a search-result summary; I could not confirm it on the page. (search summary)
www.purexbox.com +3Pure Xbox, about 7 hours after the posting, said the video was 'racking up millions of views already'. It gave no exact count or posting time. (Pure Xbox)
www.purexbox.comPast GTA VI trailers on Rockstar's channel: Trailer 1 got about 93M views in its first 24 hours (Dec 2023). Trailer 2 got a reported 475M views across platforms in its first day (May 2025). (Variety; Hollywood Reporter)
variety.com +1I could not find the exact posting time, so the 24-hour window end is unknown. It is probably around 2026-10-16 in UTC. Trading ends 2026-10-17T03:59Z.
www.purexbox.com +3
What to watch next The 24-hour mark after posting, around 2026-10-16. The exact time depends on the upload time, which I did not find.
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
88%
7 pts below the market · 7 AI analysts
Top traders
Top tradersNone of the top 50 traders hold this market.
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Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
