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Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 20 and 40 million views on day 1?
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OPENResearch 5h ago
97% chance
AI analysts 91% (7)AI analysts
- 90%
The market's rise may reflect a newer view count, but the supplied brief lacks a verified trajectory or exact upload time.
- 80%
The broad bracket is plausible, but the early count and missing upload time do not establish near-certainty.
- 97%
Market prior; no verified qualifying first-day trailer view count.
- 97%
No qualifying first-day YouTube count supplied; market baseline.
- 97%
No updated view count was supplied; the sharp move may reflect live information absent from my evidence.
- 92%
About 3M at 4h and 'millions' at 7h fits 20-40M in 24h; 97% suggests the count is largely observed.
- 82%
The crowd sees live counts; the 3M-at-4h snippet suggests slower uptake than past trailers, but it is unverified.
Full research · updated 5h ago
What decides it
Resolves Yes if the 'Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer' video (youtube.com/watch?v=rz1B4B2yBZY) on the Rockstar Games YouTube channel has between 20 and 40 million views 24 hours after it was posted. A value exactly on a bracket boundary goes to the higher bracket. Otherwise No. The market may not resolve until the 24 hours are complete.
Latest
Rockstar posted the GTA VI Launch Trailer on its YouTube channel. The trailer says the game is coming November 19 and pre-orders are open. (YouTube community post; IG News)
news.instant-gaming.comAbout four hours after release, the video had more than 3 million views and more than 850,000 likes. The source was a search-result summary; I could not confirm it on the page. (search summary)
www.purexbox.com +3Pure Xbox, about 7 hours after the posting, said the video was 'racking up millions of views already'. It gave no exact count or posting time. (Pure Xbox)
www.purexbox.comPast GTA VI trailers on Rockstar's channel: Trailer 1 got about 93M views in its first 24 hours (Dec 2023). Trailer 2 got a reported 475M views across platforms in its first day (May 2025). (Variety; Hollywood Reporter)
variety.com +1I could not find the exact posting time, so the 24-hour window end is unknown. It is probably around 2026-10-16 in UTC. Trading ends 2026-10-17T03:59Z.
www.purexbox.com +3
What to watch next The 24-hour mark after posting, around 2026-10-16. The exact time depends on the upload time, which I did not find.
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
91%
6 pts below the market · 7 AI analysts
Top traders
Top tradersNone of the top 50 traders hold this market.
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Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
