Mary PeltolaDan Sullivan
NowNot yet
2022 at this pointNot yet
2022 finalRep +0.3
PolymarketDem 84%
2022
Polls close at 12:00 AM ET.
Midterms 2026
Live count, compared with 2022 at the same point in the count.
Unofficial results · Updated 10:08 PM ET
Senate
100 seats · 35 on the ballot · Democrats need 51, Republicans 50 (the Vice President breaks ties)
Polymarket favourites: Each seat goes to the side Polymarket gives the higher chance. Seats not on the ballot sit at the ends, paler.who the market favours
55 · 45Dem control 99%
Votes counted now: Each seat goes to whoever leads in the votes counted so far. A lead is not a result: many races change as the count goes on. Not a call.who leads where votes are in
46 · 3618 of 35 counting
Simulation: Thousands of runs of the night: a race with votes in lands inside its tested range for the final result; a race without votes follows the market's chance; one shared national swing links them all. Seats are the middle run; the range covers 90% of runs.votes counted + tested range; market chance elsewhere
54 Dem (52 to 55, 90%)Dem control 100%
D99% to win the Senate PolymarketD100% to win the Senate simulationNow 47 D · 53 RMarket favouritesD +8R −8
We compare 15 of these 35 races with 2022 county by county; the rest count toward the bars only.
Key races
About 30% counted
Josh Turek58.8%Ashley Hinson38.8%NowDem +20.5
2022 at this pointDem +8.6
2022 finalRep +12.2
PolymarketDem 94%
2022
Now
Final result, 95% range: Rep +1.8 to Dem +30.1
In 2022 the rest of the count moved it 20.8 points toward Republicans from this point.
About 72% counted
Adam Hamilton57.5%Roger Marshall39.6%NowDem +18.4
2022 at this pointRep +18.0
2022 finalRep +23.9
PolymarketDem 98%
2022
Now
Final result, 95% range: Dem +3.8 to Dem +15.9
In 2022 the rest of the count moved it 5.9 points toward Republicans from this point.
About 23% counted
Troy Jackson47.9%Susan Collins51.9%NowRep +4.0
2022 at this pointDem +8.3
2022 finalDem +13.2
PolymarketDem 91%
2022
Now
Final result, 95% range: Rep +15.5 to Dem +18.2
In 2022 the rest of the count moved it 4.9 points toward Democrats from this point.
About 18% counted
Abdul El-Sayed52.3%Mike Rogers45.9%NowDem +6.6
2022 at this pointDem +5.7
2022 finalDem +10.7
PolymarketDem 98%
2022
Now
Final result, 95% range: Rep +10.7 to Dem +24.8
In 2022 the rest of the count moved it 5.0 points toward Democrats from this point.
About 79% counted
Sherrod Brown48.5%Jon Husted46.8%NowDem +1.7
2022 at this pointRep +8.4
2022 finalRep +6.1
PolymarketDem 97%
2022
Now
Final result, 95% range: Dem +3.1 to Dem +13.9
In 2022 the rest of the count moved it 2.3 points toward Democrats from this point.
About 71% counted
James Talarico59.0%Ken Paxton39.5%NowDem +19.8
2022 at this pointRep +10.3
2022 finalRep +11.1
PolymarketDem 99%
2022
Now
Final result, 95% range: Dem +7.1 to Dem +19.4
In 2022 the rest of the count moved it 0.8 points toward Republicans from this point.
About 73% counted
Keisha Lance Bottoms56.2%Rick Jackson43.8%NowDem +12.4
2022 at this pointRep +5.7
2022 finalRep +7.6
PolymarketDem >99%
2022
Now
Final result, 95% range: Dem +5.8 to Dem +17.3
In 2022 the rest of the count moved it 1.9 points toward Republicans from this point.
About 50% counted
Cindy Holscher60.3%Ty Masterson39.7%NowDem +20.5
2022 at this pointDem +12.9
2022 finalDem +2.2
PolymarketDem 83%
2022
Now
Final result, 95% range: Dem +0.7 to Dem +21.0
In 2022 the rest of the count moved it 10.8 points toward Republicans from this point.
Aaron FordJoe Lombardo
NowNot yet
2022 at this pointNot yet
2022 finalRep +1.4
PolymarketDem 94%
2022
Waiting for the first votes.
About 2.5% counted
David Crowley47.2%Tom Tiffany52.8%NowRep +5.5
2022 at this pointDem +30.5
2022 finalDem +3.4
PolymarketDem 98%
2022
Now
Final result, 95% range: Rep +19.3 to Dem +20.8
In 2022 the rest of the count moved it 27.1 points toward Republicans from this point.
Map
Dem Repno votes yetno senate race tracked±20 pt margin
All races
| Race | Counted: Votes so far as a share of the 2022 total for the same race. | Now | 2022 at this point: The 2022 margin when its count had reached the same share. | 2022 final | Polymarket: The market's chance for the side it favours. A price, not a forecast. | Final, 95% range: Where the final margin should land, 95 times in 100. It narrows as more votes are counted. Tested on 66 races from 2022 that the method had not seen, it held 95.1% of the time. House ranges are less tested. Not a call. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FL-SFlorida US Senate Special106% counted | 106% | Rep +3.1 | Rep +16.6 | Rep +16.6 | Rep >99% | Rep +3.6 to Rep +2.6 |
| TX-STexas US Senate71% counted | 71% | Dem +19.8 | Rep +10.3 | Rep +11.1 | Dem 99% | Dem +7.1 to Dem +19.4 |
| NC-SNorth Carolina US Senate98% counted | 98% | Dem +20.1 | Rep +3.9 | Rep +3.3 | Dem >99% | Dem +17.9 to Dem +21.8 |
| GA-SGeorgia US Senate84% counted | 84% | Dem +19.7 | Rep +0.8 | Dem +1.0 | Dem >99% | Dem +15.6 to Dem +23.4 |
| OH-SOhio US Senate Special General79% counted | 79% | Dem +1.7 | Rep +8.4 | Rep +6.1 | Dem 97% | Dem +3.1 to Dem +13.9 |
| SC-SSouth Carolina US Senate107% counted | 107% | Dem +4.2 | Rep +25.9 | Rep +25.9 | Dem >99% | Dem +3.5 to Dem +6.8 |
| MI-SMichigan US Senate18% counted | 18% | Dem +6.6 | Dem +5.7 | Dem +10.7 | Dem 98% | Rep +10.7 to Dem +24.8 |
| KS-SKansas US Senate72% counted | 72% | Dem +18.4 | Rep +18.0 | Rep +23.9 | Dem 98% | Dem +3.8 to Dem +15.9 |
| MS-Sno 2022 raceMississippi US Senate0% counted | 0% | Rep +4.6 | No 2022 count | No 2022 race | Rep 81% | Not yet |
| IA-SIowa US Senate30% counted | 30% | Dem +20.5 | Dem +8.6 | Rep +12.2 | Dem 94% | Rep +1.8 to Dem +30.1 |
| NH-SNew Hampshire US Senate45% counted | 45% | Dem +12.8 | Dem +12.1 | Dem +9.3 | Dem >99% | Rep +0.9 to Dem +23.9 |
| NE-SNebraska US Senate31% counted | 31% | Dem +20.6 | Dem +5.9 | Rep +24.8 | Rep 89% | Rep +10.6 to Dem +20.8 |
| ME-SMaine US Senate23% counted | 23% | Rep +4.0 | Dem +8.3 | Dem +13.2 | Dem 91% | Rep +15.5 to Dem +18.2 |
| MN-SMinnesota US Senate2.9% counted | 2.9% | Rep +14.0 | Dem +5.1 | Dem +7.9 | Dem 96% | Rep +19.9 to Dem +20.1 |
| AK-SAlaska US SenateNo votes yet | 0.0% | Not yet | Not yet | Rep +0.3 | Dem 84% | Not yet |
Results: civicAPI and state election offices. Odds: Polymarket. 2022 count history from archived public results.