2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

Polymarket prices · as of 11:34 UTCCloses Jul 1, 2027Polymarket 24h vol $2.6K

Polymarket chance · the 4 levels nearest 50%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 93%Nathalie Arthaud 87%Marine Le Pen 85%Édouard Philippe 83%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

46 levels open · by chance

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Jean-Luc Mélenchon93%———

Nathalie Arthaud87%———

Marine Le Pen85%———

Édouard Philippe83%———

Raphaël Glucksmann81%———

Fabien Roussel80%———

Éric Zemmour76%———

David Lisnard72%———

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan63%———

Bruno Retailleau48%———

Dominique de Villepin34%———

Marine Tondelier24%———

Gabriel Attal23%———

François Hollande22%———

Sarah Knafo20%———

François Ruffin19%———

François Asselineau12%———

Jordan Bardella11%———

Juan Branco11%———

Delphine Batho10%———

Élisabeth Borne7%———

Matthieu Pigasse7%———

Xavier Bertrand6%———

Bernard Cazeneuve6%———

Michel Barnier6%———

Michel-Edouard Leclerc6%———

Yaël Braun-Pivet6%———

Sébastien Lecornu6%———

Teddy Riner6%———

François Bayrou5%———

Jean Castex5%———

Carole Delga5%———

Olivier Faure5%———

Philippe de Villiers5%———

Manuel Bompard5%———

Karim Bouamrane5%———

Jean-Michel Fauvergue5%———

Bally Bagayoko4%———

Mathilde Panot4%———

Manuel Valls4%———

Valérie Pécresse4%———

Jérôme Guedj4%———

Gérald Darmanin4%———

Clémentine Autain4%———

Laurent Wauquiez3%———

Ségolène Royal3%———

46 options trading, by chance.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 46 options

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.