Fed rate cut by...?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

Polymarket prices · as of 07:35 UTCCloses Jan 29, 2028Polymarket 24h vol $55.7

Polymarket chance · the 4 levels nearest 50%

July 2027 Meeting 46%April 2027 Meeting 33%June 2027 Meeting 28%March 2027 Meeting 15%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

7 levels open

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

October 2026 Meeting<1%———

December 2026 Meeting3%———

January 2027 Meeting11%———

March 2027 Meeting15%———

April 2027 Meeting33%———

June 2027 Meeting28%———

July 2027 Meeting46%———

7 options trading.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 7 options

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.