First snow of the 2026 season

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

Polymarket prices · as of 06:35 UTCCloses Dec 4, 2026Polymarket 24h vol $676

Polymarket chance · the 4 levels nearest 50%

Nashville, TN by November 30 52%Boston, MA by November 30 53%Philadelphia, PA by November 30 48%Buffalo, NY by November 30 53%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.

31 levels open · in level order

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Buffalo, NY by October 3116%———

Denver, CO by October 3130%———

Minneapolis, MN by October 3121%———

Salt Lake City, UT by October 3124%———

Boston, MA by November 1536%———

Buffalo, NY by November 1562%———

Chicago, IL by November 1543%———

Denver, CO by November 1558%———

Detroit, MI by November 1543%———

Indianapolis, IN by November 1539%———

Kansas City, MO by November 1545%———

Minneapolis, MN by November 1566%———

Pittsburgh, PA by November 1569%———

Salt Lake City, UT by November 1537%———

Boston, MA by November 3053%———

Buffalo, NY by November 3053%———

Chicago, IL by November 3081%———

Cincinnati, OH by November 3061%———

Dallas, TX by November 3025%———

Denver, CO by November 3097%———

Detroit, MI by November 3070%———

Indianapolis, IN by November 3075%———

Kansas City, MO by November 3090%———

Minneapolis, MN by November 3082%———

Nashville, TN by November 3052%———

New York City, NY by November 3073%———

Philadelphia, PA by November 3048%———

Pittsburgh, PA by November 3095%———

Salt Lake City, UT by November 3095%———

St. Louis, MO by November 3063%———

Washington, DC by November 3061%———

31 open levels, in level order.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 31 options

This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that records any snowfall, including trace, between market creation and the listed deadline, 11:59 PM local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The observation day is each station's National Weather Service climate day (midnight to midnight local time). Each market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as a report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as a report has been published for every day of its window. Because the final climate report for a day is issued the following morning, each market carries a resolution date 3 days after its deadline as an outer limit for that publication lag, not a waiting period: October 31, 2026 (by November 3, 2026); November 15, 2026 (by November 18, 2026); November 30, 2026 (by December 3, 2026). Each market's resolution source is that city's NWS Daily Climate Report, linked in that market's details. Those pages show the latest report only; past daily reports for every city are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that records any snowfall, including trace, between market creation and the listed deadline, 11:59 PM local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The observation day is each station's National Weather Service climate day (midnight to midnight local time). Each market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as a report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as a report has been published for every day of its window. Because the final climate report for a day is issued the following morning, each market carries a resolution date 3 days after its deadline as an outer limit for that publication lag, not a waiting period: October 31, 2026 (by November 3, 2026); November 15, 2026 (by November 18, 2026); November 30, 2026 (by December 3, 2026). Each market's resolution source is that city's NWS Daily Climate Report, linked in that market's details. Those pages show the latest report only; past daily reports for every city are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/.