French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

Polymarket prices · as of 09:34 UTCLast trade · 11m agoCloses Apr 18, 2027Polymarket 24h vol $74.4

Polymarket chance · the 4 levels nearest 50%

Dominique de Villepin 70%Bernard Cazeneuve 34%François Hollande 20%Yaël Braun-Pivet 8%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

15 levels open

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Jordan Bardella4%———

Michel Barnier6%———

Valérie Pécresse4%———

Élisabeth Borne7%———

Yaël Braun-Pivet8%———

Jean Castex3%———

Gérald Darmanin6%———

Sébastien Lecornu3%———

François Bayrou3%———

Bernard Cazeneuve34%———

Carole Delga2%———

François Hollande20%———

Manuel Bompard6%———

Mathilde Panot3%———

Dominique de Villepin70%———

15 options trading.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 15 options

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.