How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

Polymarket prices · as of 09:34 UTCLast trade · 20m agoCloses Dec 31, 2026Polymarket 24h vol $6.7K

Polymarket chance · the 4 levels nearest 50%

5.10% 50%5.15% 43%5.05% 67%5.00% 70%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.

7 levels open · in level order

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

4.80%>99%———

4.90%87%———

5.00%70%———

5.05%67%———

5.10%50%———

5.15%43%———

5.25%21%———

7 open levels, in level order.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 7 options

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).