MarketsElections
How many Knesset members will vote for the new Israeli government?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Polymarket 24h vol $0
No vote by February 28 47%47 or fewer 46%51–53 43%72+ 41%
11 options · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
No vote by February 2847%———
47 or fewer46%———
48–5026%———
51–5343%———
54–5627%———
57–5924%———
60–6224%———
63–6526%———
66–6826%———
69–7126%———
72+41%———
11 open levels, in level order.
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- Resolution criteria
- Following the Israeli legislative election of October 27, 2026, the 26th Knesset is set to hold a vote of confidence in a new government. This market will resolve to the number of Members of the Knesset who vote “For” in the first vote of confidence in a new Israeli government held following this election. The vote count refers to the first final vote of confidence in the full Knesset, not committee votes or procedural motions. If no such vote is held by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by February 28”. Only a vote of confidence held by the 26th Knesset, elected on October 27, 2026, will be considered. If the 26th Knesset is dissolved and a new election is called before such a vote is held, this market will resolve to “No vote by February 28”. Votes of confidence held after any subsequent Knesset election will not be considered. The resolution sources will be official information from the Knesset and a consensus of credible reporting.