Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

Polymarket prices · as of 10:35 UTCCloses Jan 1, 2027Polymarket 24h vol $473.8

Polymarket chance · the 4 levels nearest 50%

December 31, 2027 32%June 30, 2027 19%March 31, 2027 14%December 31 4%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

4 levels open

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

December 314%———

March 31, 202714%———

June 30, 202719%———

December 31, 202732%———

4 options trading.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 4 options

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.