Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

Polymarket prices · as of 06:35 UTCCloses Sep 1, 2026Polymarket 24h vol $404.5

Polymarket chance · the 3 levels nearest 50%

March 31 18%December 31 6%October 31 <1%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.

3 levels open · in level order

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

October 31<1%———

December 316%———

March 3118%———

3 open levels, in level order.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 3 options

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.