Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

Polymarket prices · as of 19:34 UTCCloses May 11, 2026Polymarket 24h vol $10.6

Polymarket chance · top 4 of 23 options

Amal Movement (Amal) 2%Lebanese Forces (LF) <1%Hezbollah (Hezb) <1%Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) <1%

23 options · by chance

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Amal Movement (Amal)2%———

Lebanese Forces (LF)<1%———

Hezbollah (Hezb)<1%———

Free Patriotic Movement (FPM)<1%———

Progressive Socialist Party (PSP)<1%———

Kataeb Party (Kataeb)<1%———

Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF)<1%———

Marada Movement (MM)<1%———

Independence Movement (IM)<1%———

Taqaddom Party<1%———

Islamic Charitable Projects Association (ICPA)<1%———

Islamic Group (IG)<1%———

Union Party (UP)<1%———

Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon (Ba'ath)<1%———

National Liberal Party (NLP)<1%———

Lana – Social Democratic Party (Lana)<1%———

Mada Party (Mada)<1%———

Khatt Ahmar<1%———

Popular Nasserist Organization (PNO)<1%———

National Dialogue Party (NDP)<1%———

Dignity Movement (DM)<1%———

Watani Alliance (Watani)<1%———

ReLebanon<1%———

23 options trading, by chance.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 23 options

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.