Leopold Aschenbrenner charged by...?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

Polymarket prices · as of 09:34 UTCCloses Jan 1, 2028Polymarket 24h vol $0

Polymarket chance · the 3 levels nearest 50%

December 31, 2027 27%December 31, 2026 6%June 30, 2027 5%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.

3 levels open · in level order

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

December 31, 20266%———

June 30, 20275%———

December 31, 202727%———

3 open levels, in level order.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 3 options

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Leopold Aschenbrenner between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Leopold Aschenbrenner between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.