Negative GDP growth in 2026?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

Polymarket prices · as of 07:35 UTCCloses Jan 29, 2027Polymarket 24h vol $0

Polymarket chance · the 1 levels nearest 50%

Negative GDP growth in 2026? 3%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

1 level open

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Negative GDP growth in 2026?3%———

1 option trading.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 1 options

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product. Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product. Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.