Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

Polymarket prices · as of 07:35 UTCLast trade · 12m agoCloses Apr 19, 2027Polymarket 24h vol $21.7K

Polymarket chance · the 4 levels nearest 50%

Marine Le Pen 88%Jean-Luc Mélenchon 41%Édouard Philippe 33%David Lisnard 20%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

36 levels open · by chance

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Marine Le Pen88%———

Jean-Luc Mélenchon41%———

Édouard Philippe33%———

David Lisnard20%———

Raphaël Glucksmann11%———

Jordan Bardella8%———

Gabriel Attal7%———

Bruno Retailleau6%———

François Hollande6%———

Sébastien Lecornu5%———

Dominique de Villepin5%———

François Asselineau5%———

Juan Branco5%———

Éric Zemmour5%———

Manuel Bompard4%———

François Ruffin4%———

Sarah Knafo4%———

Bernard Cazeneuve4%———

Fabien Roussel3%———

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan3%———

Élisabeth Borne3%———

Ségolène Royal3%———

François Bayrou3%———

Olivier Faure3%———

Clémence Guetté3%———

Gérald Darmanin3%———

Clémentine Autain3%———

Yaël Braun-Pivet2%———

Jean Castex2%———

Laurent Wauquiez2%———

Carole Delga2%———

Marine Tondelier2%———

Michel Barnier2%———

Xavier Bertrand1%———

Mathilde Panot1%———

Valérie Pécresse1%———

36 options trading, by chance.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 36 options

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).