Next Israeli government formed by...?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

Polymarket prices · as of 08:35 UTCLast trade · 13m agoCloses Jul 1, 2027Polymarket 24h vol $6.5K

Polymarket chance · the 4 levels nearest 50%

February 28, 2027 47%June 30, 2027 60%December 31, 2026 26%November 30, 2026 17%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.

4 levels open · in level order

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

November 30, 202617%———

December 31, 202626%———

February 28, 202747%———

June 30, 202760%———

4 open levels, in level order.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 4 options

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new Government of Israel is officially sworn in by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” To qualify, a newly formed government, headed by a Prime Minister and composed of appointed ministers must be sworn in before the Knesset within this market's timeframe. Only a government formed as a result of the 2026 Knesset election or any subsequent election will qualify. Caretaker or transitional governments, including the outgoing government continuing to serve in a caretaker capacity, will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel or the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new Government of Israel is officially sworn in by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” To qualify, a newly formed government, headed by a Prime Minister and composed of appointed ministers must be sworn in before the Knesset within this market's timeframe. Only a government formed as a result of the 2026 Knesset election or any subsequent election will qualify. Caretaker or transitional governments, including the outgoing government continuing to serve in a caretaker capacity, will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel or the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.