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Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Last trade · 7m agoPolymarket 24h vol $209
No release by November 30 32%November 29 30%November 25 27%November 30 27%
29 options · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
On or prior to November 35%———
November 426%———
November 525%———
November 626%———
November 74%———
November 84%———
November 926%———
November 104%———
November 1125%———
November 1225%———
November 1326%———
November 1426%———
November 1526%———
November 167%———
November 1726%———
November 1826%———
November 1926%———
November 206%———
November 216%———
November 225%———
November 236%———
November 2426%———
November 2527%———
November 2626%———
November 274%———
November 2826%———
November 2930%———
November 3027%———
No release by November 3032%———
29 open levels, in level order.
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- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.