November 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

Polymarket prices · as of 21:34 UTCCloses Dec 29, 2026Polymarket 24h vol $0

Polymarket chance · top 4 of 4 options

1st hottest 68%3rd hottest 46%4th or lower 43%2nd hottest 27%

4 options · in level order

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

1st hottest68%———

2nd hottest27%———

3rd hottest46%———

4th or lower43%———

4 open levels, in level order.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 4 options

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2026 versus the data points available for all other Novembers on record. Note: If November 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for November 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2026 versus the data points available for all other Novembers on record. Note: If November 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for November 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.