October 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

Polymarket prices · as of 08:35 UTCCloses Nov 29, 2026Polymarket 24h vol $0

Polymarket chance · top 4 of 4 options

1st hottest 97%3rd hottest 3%2nd hottest <1%4th or lower <1%

4 options · in level order

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

1st hottest97%———

2nd hottest<1%———

3rd hottest3%———

4th or lower<1%———

4 open levels, in level order.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 4 options

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2026 versus the data points available for all other Octobers on record. Note: If October 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for October 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2026 versus the data points available for all other Octobers on record. Note: If October 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for October 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.