Panama Canal effectively closed by...?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

Polymarket prices · as of 07:35 UTCCloses Jan 1, 2027Polymarket 24h vol $0

Polymarket chance · the 3 levels nearest 50%

December 31 5%November 30 2%October 31 1%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.

3 levels open · in level order

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

October 311%———

November 302%———

December 315%———

3 open levels, in level order.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 3 options

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Panama Canal less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Panama Canal Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Panama Canal at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/44d73fd00bbc4f73a16d46d5beb11b4d , including both the chart and downloadable files.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Panama Canal less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Panama Canal Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Panama Canal at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/44d73fd00bbc4f73a16d46d5beb11b4d , including both the chart and downloadable files.