Rahul Gandhi arrested by...?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

Polymarket prices · as of 07:35 UTCCloses Jan 1, 2027Polymarket 24h vol $41.3

Polymarket chance · the 2 levels nearest 50%

December 31 36%October 31 6%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.

2 levels open · in level order

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

October 316%———

December 3136%———

2 open levels, in level order.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 2 options

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rahul Gandhi is arrested between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest occurs when Rahul Gandhi is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true: (i) he is criminally booked or processed; (ii) he is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, chargesheet, or equivalent criminal charging instrument; (iii) he is held for remand, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or (iv) he is transported to a police station or equivalent criminal law enforcement center. The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in a chargesheet, or being charged without being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds. Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rahul Gandhi is arrested between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest occurs when Rahul Gandhi is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true: (i) he is criminally booked or processed; (ii) he is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, chargesheet, or equivalent criminal charging instrument; (iii) he is held for remand, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or (iv) he is transported to a police station or equivalent criminal law enforcement center. The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in a chargesheet, or being charged without being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds. Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.