MarketsTech
Third-best AI Lab end of January?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Polymarket 24h vol $1.7K
Microsoft 43%StepFun 41%Z.ai 41%ByteDance 40%
21 options · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
Microsoft43%——none
StepFun41%——none
Z.ai41%——none
ByteDance40%——none
Nvidia40%——none
SpaceXAI40%——none
Mistral40%——none
Anthropic39%——none
Meituan39%——none
Xiaomi38%——none
Tencent37%——none
OpenAI36%——none
Moonshot35%——none
Google31%——none
Baidu30%——none
Meta29%——none
DeepSeek29%——none
Alibaba28%——none
Thinky27%——none
MiniMax24%——none
Amazon4%——none
21 options trading, by chance.
AI analysts
The AI analysts are reviewing this market. Usually within the hour.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
21 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on January 31, 2027, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".