Trump declares a national emergency by...?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

Polymarket prices · as of 22:35 UTCCloses Jan 1, 2027Polymarket 24h vol $0

Polymarket chance · the 2 levels nearest 50%

December 31 48%November 30 31%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.

2 levels open · in level order

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

November 3031%———

December 3148%———

2 open levels, in level order.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 2 options

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency pursuant to the National Emergencies Act between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, announcements of an intention to declare a national emergency, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that do not declare a national emergency will not qualify. Renewals, continuations, or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify. Amendments to or expansions of previously existing national emergencies will also not qualify unless they formally declare a new national emergency. The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency pursuant to the National Emergencies Act between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, announcements of an intention to declare a national emergency, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that do not declare a national emergency will not qualify. Renewals, continuations, or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify. Amendments to or expansions of previously existing national emergencies will also not qualify unless they formally declare a new national emergency. The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.