US defaults on debt by 2027?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

Polymarket prices · as of 07:35 UTCCloses Jan 1, 2027Polymarket 24h vol $0

Polymarket chance · the 1 levels nearest 50%

US defaults on debt by 2027? 1%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

1 level open

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

US defaults on debt by 2027?1%———

1 option trading.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 1 options

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.