U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea by...?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

Polymarket prices · as of 08:35 UTCCloses Jan 1, 2027Polymarket 24h vol $1.2K

Polymarket chance · the 3 levels nearest 50%

December 31, 2027 27%June 30, 2027 23%December 31, 2026 4%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.

3 levels open · in level order

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

December 31, 20264%———

June 30, 202723%———

December 31, 202727%———

3 open levels, in level order.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 3 options

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.