Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

Polymarket prices · as of 06:35 UTCCloses Jan 1, 2027Polymarket 24h vol $8.8

Polymarket chance · the 1 levels nearest 50%

Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? 4%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

1 level open

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?4%———

1 option trading.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 1 options

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ursula von der Leyen ceases to be the President of the European Commission for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of von der Leyen's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Commission and the European Union, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ursula von der Leyen ceases to be the President of the European Commission for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of von der Leyen's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Commission and the European Union, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.