Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

Polymarket prices · as of 08:35 UTCCloses Jan 1, 2027Polymarket 24h vol $116.4

Polymarket chance · the 4 levels nearest 50%

Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar 23%Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar 19%Ricardo Ruiz Velasco 14%Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan 14%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

7 levels open

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar23%———

Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar19%———

Ricardo Ruiz Velasco14%———

Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan14%———

Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez11%———

Juan Reyes Mejía González9%———

Juan Pablo Ledezma11%———

7 options trading.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 7 options

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.