Which of these Republicans will be the first to announce a run for President?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

Polymarket prices · as of 07:35 UTCCloses Jan 1, 2028Polymarket 24h vol $0

Polymarket chance · top 4 of 10 options

Ted Cruz 51%J.D. Vance 34%Donald Trump Jr. 33%Marjorie Taylor Greene 22%

10 options · by chance

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Ted Cruz51%———

J.D. Vance34%———

Donald Trump Jr.33%———

Marjorie Taylor Greene22%———

Marco Rubio21%———

Ron DeSantis13%———

Vivek Ramaswamy5%———

Donald Trump4%———

Rand Paul3%———

Glenn Youngkin1%———

10 options trading, by chance.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 10 options

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Glenn Youngkin, Vivek Ramaswamy, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marjorie Taylor Greene. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Glenn Youngkin, Vivek Ramaswamy, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marjorie Taylor Greene. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.