Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

Polymarket prices · as of 07:35 UTCCloses Nov 8, 2026Polymarket 24h vol $0

Polymarket chance · the 4 levels nearest 50%

New Zealand First Party 61%ACT New Zealand 60%National Party 47%Green Party 47%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

6 levels open · by chance

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

New Zealand First Party61%———

ACT New Zealand60%———

National Party47%———

Green Party47%———

Labour Party46%———

Te Pāti Māori36%———

6 options trading, by chance.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 6 options

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances. A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances. A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.