Which parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

Polymarket prices · as of 07:35 UTCLast trade · 1m agoCloses Oct 27, 2026Polymarket 24h vol $30.8K

Polymarket chance · the 4 levels nearest 50%

Ra'am >99%RZP-Zehut 99%Reservists and New Economic Party 10%Amcha Yisrael <1%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

5 levels open · by chance

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Ra'am>99%———

RZP-Zehut99%———

Reservists and New Economic Party10%———

Blue & White<1%———

Amcha Yisrael<1%———

5 options trading, by chance.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 5 options

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. A candidate list must clear an electoral threshold of 3.25% of valid votes in order to win any seats in the Knesset. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party wins at least one seat in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. A candidate list must clear an electoral threshold of 3.25% of valid votes in order to win any seats in the Knesset. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party wins at least one seat in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).