Which Senate races will be within 1%?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

Polymarket prices · as of 09:34 UTCCloses Nov 4, 2026Polymarket 24h vol $874.6

Polymarket chance · the 4 levels nearest 50%

Kansas 21%Texas 21%Maine 19%Nebraska 19%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

19 levels open · by chance

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Kansas21%———

Texas21%———

Maine19%———

Nebraska19%———

Iowa17%———

Michigan16%———

Montana13%———

Mississippi13%———

Ohio (Special)12%———

Alaska9%———

Minnesota9%———

South Carolina8%———

Florida (Special)8%———

New Hampshire7%———

Georgia6%———

North Carolina4%———

Colorado3%———

New Mexico3%———

Virginia3%———

19 options trading, by chance.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 19 options

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.