Will another sitting Australian MP join One Nation in 2026?

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Polymarket prices · as of 10:35 UTCCloses Jan 1, 2027Polymarket 24h vol $0

Polymarket chance · the 1 levels nearest 50%

Will another sitting Australian MP join One Nation in 2026? 47%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.

1 level open · in level order

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Will another sitting Australian MP join One Nation in 2026?47%———

1 open level, in level order.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 1 options

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement. This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement. This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.