Will any country leave NATO by...?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

Polymarket prices · as of 08:35 UTCCloses Jan 1, 2027Polymarket 24h vol $171

Polymarket chance · the 1 levels nearest 50%

December 31, 2026 5%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

1 level open

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

December 31, 20265%———

1 option trading.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 1 options

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.