Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

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Polymarket prices · as of 06:35 UTCCloses Jan 1, 2027Polymarket 24h vol $493.6

Polymarket chance · the 1 levels nearest 50%

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? 12%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

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Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?12%———

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.