Will Trump pardon anyone by...?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

Polymarket prices · as of 10:35 UTCCloses Jan 1, 2027Polymarket 24h vol $0

Polymarket chance · the 2 levels nearest 50%

December 31 72%October 31 21%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.

2 levels open · in level order

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

October 3121%———

December 3172%———

2 open levels, in level order.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 2 options

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.