Legal & Compliance
Kellian Forecasting Contest Official Rules
Last Updated: November 10, 2026 | Contest Period: opens once 1,000 people have joined | Version française
NO PURCHASE NECESSARY TO ENTER OR WIN. A PURCHASE OR SUBSCRIPTION GIVES NO ADDITIONAL ENTRY, POINTS OR SCORING ADVANTAGE. VOID WHERE PROHIBITED. OPEN TO LEGAL RESIDENTS OF THE 50 UNITED STATES, THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA AND CANADA WHO ARE AT LEAST 18 YEARS OLD AND THE AGE OF MAJORITY WHERE THEY LIVE. WINNERS ARE DETERMINED BY FORECASTING ACCURACY (SKILL).
1. Sponsor
Problee, Inc. (operating as Kellian), a Delaware corporation, 131 Continental Drive, Newark, DE 19713, USA (registered office) ("Sponsor"). Questions about the Contest: [email protected]. Polymarket is not a sponsor of, and is not associated with, this Contest.
2. Contest Period
Registration is open. The Contest opens on a date Sponsor announces on kellian.app/contest at least seven (7) days ahead, and no later than the first Monday that is at least seven (7) days after the 1,000th person joins the Contest. Sponsor may announce an opening date before 1,000 people have joined. The Contest Period begins at 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time on that opening date, a Monday, and runs ten (10) weeks: it ends at 11:59:59 p.m. Eastern Time on the Sunday that closes its tenth week, 69 days after the opening date ("Contest Period"). Until the Contest Period begins, no forecast counts. Entries made under an earlier version of these Official Rules stand. Sponsor's server clock is the official time.
3. Eligibility
Open to legal residents of the 50 United States, the District of Columbia and Canada who, at entry, are at least 18 years old and the age of majority in their state, province or territory. Not eligible: employees, officers, directors and contractors of Sponsor, and their immediate families and household members; persons on any government sanctions list; residents of any place where the Contest is prohibited. Participation constitutes acceptance of these Official Rules.
4. How to Enter (free)
From the opening of registration until the end of the Contest Period, create or sign in to a free Kellian account at kellian.app and join the Contest by accepting these Official Rules. Only forecasts made during the Contest Period count. No payment, subscription or trading account of any kind is required. Limit: one (1) entry and one (1) account per person. You may forecast yourself or through an AI agent or other tool connected to your account; everything submitted through your account is your one entry. Kellian Plus and any other paid Kellian product are not required, and every entrant is entered, scored and ranked the same way whether or not they subscribe. You may use any information source, free or paid.
5. Contest Questions
Every yes/no option of a Polymarket question that Kellian covers is a Contest Question if Polymarket's scheduled end for it falls on or before the end of the Contest Period ("Contest Questions"). You choose which Contest Questions to forecast. A Contest Question counts for you only once Polymarket resolves it (a question not resolved within seven (7) days after the end of the Contest Period does not count). Each Contest Question is in one of the five Categories of section 8, by the category Kellian files its question under. Sponsor may feature questions on kellian.app; a featured question counts the same as any other. Outcomes are as Polymarket resolves them. A question Polymarket cancels, voids or resolves at 50/50 is removed for all entrants.
6. Forecasts
You may enter through kellian.app, through ChatGPT or Claude connected to your Kellian account, or through an AI agent using your account; all count as your one entry. A forecast is a probability from 1% to 99% that the option resolves Yes. You may make up to three (3) forecasts per Contest Question per Eastern Time calendar day until the question locks; each forecast is scored on its own (section 7), and a later forecast does not replace an earlier one. A question locks when Polymarket stops trading it or its outcome is known, whichever is first. Other entrants' forecasts on a Contest Question are hidden until it locks; afterwards all forecasts on it are public on Kellian.
7. Scoring
(a) Reference price. For each forecast, Sponsor records the Polymarket price of the option at the time of the forecast, as Polymarket's public price history records it: the first price point at or after the forecast within ten (10) minutes or, if there is none, the last price point before it. (b) Counted forecasts. A forecast counts if it was made after you joined, during the Contest Period and before the question locked, and its reference price was from 5% to 95% inclusive. (c) Forecast score. Each counted forecast on a resolved Contest Question scores its Brier score minus the Brier score of its reference price: (p − o)² − (m − o)², where p is the forecast, m the reference price and o the outcome (1 for Yes, 0 for No). Below zero means the forecast was closer to the outcome than the price. (d) Category score. Your score in a Category is the average of the forecast scores of all your counted forecasts on resolved Contest Questions in that Category; the lowest score ranks first. Ties are broken by (i) more resolved Contest Questions with counted forecasts in the Category, then (ii) the earlier time of your first forecast in the Category. (e) Closer than Polymarket. You are closer than Polymarket in a Category when your Category score is below zero with 95% confidence under a one-sided Student's t-test that takes each resolved Contest Question as one observation: with Q such questions (at least two), N counted forecasts on them, S_q the sum and n_q the number of your forecast scores on question q, and s = ΣS_q ÷ N your Category score, the standard error is √(Q ÷ (Q − 1) × Σ(S_q − s × n_q)²) ÷ N, and you are closer than Polymarket if s divided by the standard error is at or below minus the one-sided 95% critical value of Student's t distribution with Q − 1 degrees of freedom (a standard error of zero with s below zero also qualifies). (f) Sponsor publishes provisional standings on kellian.app during the Contest Period.
8. Prizes
Fifteen (15) prizes, in United States dollars, in five (5) Categories: Politics (Polymarket's Politics, Elections and World), Economy (Finance, Economy and Crypto), Tech (Tech, including AI and science, and Weather), Culture (Culture, including film and music, and every question in no other Category) and Sports (Sports and Esports). In each Category, among the eligible entrants closer than Polymarket in that Category, the lowest Category score wins US$500, the second lowest US$300 and the third lowest US$200. If fewer than three eligible entrants in a Category are closer than Polymarket, the remaining prizes of that Category are not awarded. Total prize value: up to US$5,000. An entrant may win a prize in more than one Category. Each prize is paid by PayPal or Wise to an account in the winner's legal name within 30 days of verification. No substitution or transfer. Taxes are the winner's sole responsibility; the winner must provide any tax form required by law (for example IRS Form W-9 or W-8BEN). Odds of winning depend on the number of entrants and the accuracy of their forecasts.
9. Winner Verification
Sponsor reviews the five (5) best-placed entrants closer than Polymarket in each Category, including for multiple or linked accounts. Each potential winner will be notified by the email on their Kellian account within seven (7) days after the end of the Contest Period and must, within 7 days: (a) sign an Affidavit of Eligibility, Liability Release and (where lawful) Publicity Release confirming they meet these rules and held one account; (b) if a resident of Canada, correctly answer, unaided and within a time limit, a mathematical skill-testing question; and (c) provide a PayPal or Wise account in their own legal name. If a potential winner is ineligible, does not respond or comply in time, or the prize notice is undeliverable, that prize is forfeited and the places below in that Category move up to the next eligible entrants closer than Polymarket. Winners announced within fourteen (14) days after the end of the Contest Period.
10. Disqualification
Sponsor may disqualify any entrant who creates or controls more than one account, enters for another person, coordinates accounts, tampers with the Contest or Kellian, or violates these Official Rules or Kellian's Terms. Where multiple accounts are linked to one person, all linked entries are void.
11. General
Sponsor may cancel, suspend or modify the Contest if fraud, technical failure or any other cause beyond its control impairs its integrity, and in that case may award the prizes among eligible entrants ranked as of the time of the action. Sponsor is not responsible for lost, late or incomplete forecasts, or for errors in Polymarket data beyond correcting them where it can. Sponsor's decisions are final on all matters relating to the Contest.
12. Release and Limitation of Liability
By entering, entrants release Sponsor and its officers and employees from any liability arising from the Contest or the prizes, to the extent permitted by law.
13. Privacy
Entry data is handled under Kellian's Privacy Policy and used to run the Contest and pay the prizes.
14. Governing Law
The laws of the State of Delaware, without regard to its conflict-of-law rules; entrants keep any rights the law where they live grants that cannot be waived.
15. Language
A French version of these Official Rules is available. If the versions differ, the English version governs, except where the law of the entrant's place of residence requires otherwise.
16. Winners' Names
Available once the winners are announced, at kellian.app/contest or by email to [email protected].