Kellian Forecasting Contest

How it works

• Once the contest opens, forecast any question on Kellian that ends within its 10 weeks, up to 3 times a question a day. Every forecast counts.
• Each forecast is compared with Polymarket's price in the minute you made it. Forecasts made while the price is under 5% or over 95% don't count.
• Your score is your average over all your forecasts on resolved questions. Below 0 means you were closer to the results than Polymarket.
• Each of the 5 categories has 3 prizes, US$500, US$300 and US$200, for the best scores that are closer than Polymarket with 95% confidence.

Calendar

When 1,000 people have joined

The opening date is announced here, at least 7 days ahead

Opening Monday, 12:00 p.m. ET

Forecasts start counting

Every Monday

New featured questions

Sunday 11:59 p.m. ET, week 10

The contest ends

Within 14 days after the end

Winners announced

Featured this week

Featured questions start when the contest opens.

No purchase necessary. Free to enter. Open to legal residents of the US (incl. DC) and Canada, 18+ and the age of majority. Opens once 1,000 people have joined, on a date announced on this page at least 7 days ahead; it then runs for 10 weeks. Fifteen prizes, US$5,000 in total: in each of 5 categories, US$500 / US$300 / US$200 to the most accurate forecasters closer than Polymarket's prices (skill). One account per person. Canadian winners must answer a skill-testing question. Kellian Plus gives no entry, points or advantage. Official rules