MarketsPolitics
Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN5 optionsResearch 1h ago
None 25%IA, KS 24%IA, KS, ME, OH, TX 3%AK, IA, KS, OH 3%
5 options · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
5 options trading, by chance. +123 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
None25%——
IA, KS24%——
IA, KS, ME, OH, TX3%——
AK, IA, KS, OH3%——
IA, KS, MI, TX<1%1%+1
AI analysts' average · IA, KS, MI, TX
1%
1 pts above the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 359 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Rules
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- In plain English
- IA, KS, MI, TX resolves Yes only if the Republican candidate wins exactly the states named in the option, and loses every other state of the seven. The seven are the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special) and Texas Senate general elections of November 3, 2026, including any runoffs. A state counts as not won by the Republican if anyone else wins it, an independent included, or if its result cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. The AP, Fox News and NBC are the sources. The market resolves once all three have called the races, and if they don't agree it resolves on official certific…
- Watch out
- A state counts as not won by the Republican if an independent or third party wins it, or if its result cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. Republican wins are counted in all seven states, so an option resolves Yes only when it matches the exact full set.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
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