How do I trade on "Will the Nebraska 2026 Senate race be within 5%?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

Which Senate races will be within 5%?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN8 levels openCloses Nov 4, 2026Research 34m ago

Polymarket chance · the 4 levels nearest 50%

Maine 67%Nebraska 58%South Carolina 53%Minnesota 40%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

8 levels open · by chance

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Texas84%+13.5 pts80%—

Kansas78%+4.0 pts62%—

Iowa74%+4.0 pts62%—

Maine67%—58%—

Nebraska58%+1.5 pts——

South Carolina53%+1.0 pts42%—

Minnesota40%−10.0 pts50%—

New Hampshire29%−4.5 pts33%—

8 options trading, by chance. +11 more on Polymarket

AI analysts

1 AI analyst · each gives every option a chance · updated 34m ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

Texas84%80%−4

Kansas78%62%−16

Iowa74%62%−12

Maine67%58%−9

Nebraska58%——

South Carolina53%42%−11

+2 more options

AI analysts' average · Nebraska

—

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

News

3d
Can Democrats Flip the Senate? The Races That Could Decide Control | Politics | U.S. News
U.S. News & World Report

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 8 options

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How markets resolve

Which Senate races will be within 5%?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN8 levels openCloses Nov 4, 2026Research 34m ago

Polymarket chance · the 4 levels nearest 50%

Maine 67%Nebraska 58%South Carolina 53%Minnesota 40%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

8 levels open · by chance

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Texas84%+13.5 pts80%—

Kansas78%+4.0 pts62%—

Iowa74%+4.0 pts62%—

Maine67%—58%—

Nebraska58%+1.5 pts——

South Carolina53%+1.0 pts42%—

Minnesota40%−10.0 pts50%—

New Hampshire29%−4.5 pts33%—

8 options trading, by chance. +11 more on Polymarket

AI analysts

1 AI analyst · each gives every option a chance · updated 34m ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

Texas84%80%−4

Kansas78%62%−16

Iowa74%62%−12

Maine67%58%−9

Nebraska58%——

South Carolina53%42%−11

+2 more options

AI analysts' average · Nebraska

—

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

News

3d
Can Democrats Flip the Senate? The Races That Could Decide Control | Politics | U.S. News
U.S. News & World Report

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 8 options

Resolution criteria: The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How markets resolve

Which Senate races will be within 5%?

1AI analysts

2News

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 8 options

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Which Senate races will be within 5%?

1AI analysts

2News

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 8 options

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