MarketsWorld
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN4 optionsResearch 1h ago
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 89%December 8%November 3%October 1%
4 options · in level order
OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
4 open levels, in level order. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
October1%4%+3
November3%8%+5
December8%8%0
No Return to Normal Traffic in 202689%88%−1
AI analysts' average · October
4%
3 pts above the market · 2 AI analysts
Biggest gap
November: AI 8% vs market 3%, 5 pts above
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
News
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Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
No Return to Normal Traffic in 202610 · 1
3 options: no ranked trader holds them
Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published. If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
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Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.