MarketsMovies & TV
Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actor Winner
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN22 optionsResearch 1d ago
Andrew Garfield 25%Guitarricadelafuente 21%Sam Rockwell 6%John Leguizamo 5%
22 options · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
22 options trading, by chance. +4 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Andrew Garfield25%22%−3
Guitarricadelafuente21%15%−6
Sam Rockwell6%6%0
John Leguizamo5%5%0
Robert Pattinson5%7%+2
Tom Holland4%1%−3
+16 more options
AI analysts' average · Robert De Niro
1%
1 pts above the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 312 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
Sam RockwellYes jimmer-fredettejimmer-fredette: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 jimmer-fredettejimmer-fredette: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 · 1
Robert PattinsonNo HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
Tom HollandNo HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
John GoodmanNo HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
Guy PearceYes GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
17 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Robert De Niro resolves Yes if Robert De Niro wins the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards (ceremony March 14, 2027; nominations announced January 21, 2027). It resolves No if Robert De Niro is not officially nominated when the nominees are announced, or if another nominee wins. A tie goes to the nominated actor whose last name comes first alphabetically. If no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'. The sources are AMPAS …
- Resolution criteria
- The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed actor that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sign in to comment
