How do I trade on "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

Fed Decision in October?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN5 optionsCloses Oct 29, 2026Research 13m ago

Polymarket price · top 4 of 5 options

No change 88%25 bps increase 13%50+ bps increase <1%25 bps decrease <1%

5 options · in level order

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

50+ bps decrease<1%+0.1 pts——

25 bps decrease<1%−0.1 pts1%—

No change88%+1.0 pts80%25 · 8

25 bps increase13%−1.0 pts30%18 · 6

50+ bps increase<1%—1%—

5 open levels, in level order. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 13m ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

50+ bps decrease<1%——

25 bps decrease<1%1%+1

No change88%80%−8

25 bps increase13%30%+17

50+ bps increase<1%1%+1

AI analysts' average · 50+ bps decrease

—

Biggest gap

25 bps increase: AI 30% vs market 13%, 17 pts above

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

No change3325 · 8

25 bps increase2418 · 6

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 5 options

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Fed Decision in October?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN5 optionsCloses Oct 29, 2026Research 13m ago

Polymarket price · top 4 of 5 options

No change 88%25 bps increase 13%50+ bps increase <1%25 bps decrease <1%

5 options · in level order

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

50+ bps decrease<1%+0.1 pts——

25 bps decrease<1%−0.1 pts1%—

No change88%+1.0 pts80%25 · 8

25 bps increase13%−1.0 pts30%18 · 6

50+ bps increase<1%—1%—

5 open levels, in level order. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 13m ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

50+ bps decrease<1%——

25 bps decrease<1%1%+1

No change88%80%−8

25 bps increase13%30%+17

50+ bps increase<1%1%+1

AI analysts' average · 50+ bps decrease

—

Biggest gap

25 bps increase: AI 30% vs market 13%, 17 pts above

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

No change3325 · 8

25 bps increase2418 · 6

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 5 options

Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Fed Decision in October?

1AI analysts

2Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 5 options

Related Markets

Fed Decision in October?

1AI analysts

2Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 5 options

Related Markets

AI analysts

AI analysts