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Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN1 level open
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? 11%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
1 level open
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
1 option trading.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?11%7%−4
AI analysts' average · Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
7%
4 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 0 level, 1 price closer, on 236 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
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Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Yes CarCar: Tier 2, #39 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No CompulsiveGamblerCompulsiveGambler: Tier 2, #32 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 CarCar: Tier 2, #39 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2RobbbRobbb: Tier 2, #50 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 CompulsiveGamblerCompulsiveGambler: Tier 2, #32 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2alwaysOnalwaysOn: Tier 2, #41 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 · 2
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not. Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify. The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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