How do I trade on "Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 12% or more?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN9 optionsCloses Nov 4, 2026Research 50m ago

Polymarket price · top 4 of 9 options

Talarico 0-3% 35%Paxton 0-3% 26%Talarico 3-6% 20%Talarico 6-9% 9%

9 options · in level order

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Paxton 12%+2%+1.8 pts1%none

Paxton 9-12%2%−0.2 pts4%none

Paxton 6-9%2%+0.9 pts5%none

Paxton 3-6%8%−0.3 pts15%none

Paxton 0-3%26%−4.0 pts26%none

Talarico 0-3%35%−0.5 pts32%none

Talarico 3-6%20%+2.0 pts16%1 · 0

Talarico 6-9%9%+1.0 pts8%none

Talarico 12%+1%+0.3 pts1%none

9 open levels, in level order. +1 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 50m ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

Paxton 12%+2%1%−1

Paxton 9-12%2%4%+2

Paxton 6-9%2%5%+3

Paxton 3-6%8%15%+7

Paxton 0-3%26%26%0

Talarico 0-3%35%32%−3

+3 more options

AI analysts' average · Paxton 12%+

1 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst

Biggest gap

Paxton 3-6%: AI 15% vs market 8%, 7 pts above

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

News

2h
Texas Midterm Elections 2026: Key Races, Candidates and Past Results
NBC News
12h
Polls, prediction markets diverge on Texas Senate, governor's race
USA Today
14h
Fox News Poll: Texas Senate race galloping toward a photo finish
Fox News
15h
Texas’ 2026 Senate race: What to know about Ken Paxton vs James Talarico
LiveNOW from FOX
2d
Prediction markets show Talarico leading Paxton in Texas Senate race
KEYE
2d
Texas Asian American voters could play role in tight Senate race
AsAmNews
3d
Talarico holds slight edge over Paxton in U.S. Senate race on cusp of election, poll shows
Houston Public Media

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

Talarico 3-6%11 · 0

8 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 9 options

The 2026 Texas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Texas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: The 2026 Texas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Texas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN9 optionsCloses Nov 4, 2026Research 50m ago

Polymarket price · top 4 of 9 options

Talarico 0-3% 35%Paxton 0-3% 26%Talarico 3-6% 20%Talarico 6-9% 9%

9 options · in level order

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Paxton 12%+2%+1.8 pts1%none

Paxton 9-12%2%−0.2 pts4%none

Paxton 6-9%2%+0.9 pts5%none

Paxton 3-6%8%−0.3 pts15%none

Paxton 0-3%26%−4.0 pts26%none

Talarico 0-3%35%−0.5 pts32%none

Talarico 3-6%20%+2.0 pts16%1 · 0

Talarico 6-9%9%+1.0 pts8%none

Talarico 12%+1%+0.3 pts1%none

9 open levels, in level order. +1 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 50m ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

Paxton 12%+2%1%−1

Paxton 9-12%2%4%+2

Paxton 6-9%2%5%+3

Paxton 3-6%8%15%+7

Paxton 0-3%26%26%0

Talarico 0-3%35%32%−3

+3 more options

AI analysts' average · Paxton 12%+

1 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst

Biggest gap

Paxton 3-6%: AI 15% vs market 8%, 7 pts above

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

News

2h
Texas Midterm Elections 2026: Key Races, Candidates and Past Results
NBC News
12h
Polls, prediction markets diverge on Texas Senate, governor's race
USA Today
14h
Fox News Poll: Texas Senate race galloping toward a photo finish
Fox News
15h
Texas’ 2026 Senate race: What to know about Ken Paxton vs James Talarico
LiveNOW from FOX
2d
Prediction markets show Talarico leading Paxton in Texas Senate race
KEYE
2d
Texas Asian American voters could play role in tight Senate race
AsAmNews
3d
Talarico holds slight edge over Paxton in U.S. Senate race on cusp of election, poll shows
Houston Public Media

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

Talarico 3-6%11 · 0

8 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 9 options

Resolution criteria: The 2026 Texas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Texas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory

1AI analysts

2News

3Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 9 options

Related Markets

Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory

1AI analysts

2News

3Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 9 options

Related Markets

AI analysts

News

AI analysts

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