MarketsMovies & TV
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 30 million views on day 1?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 2h ago
9% chance
−3.0 pts 24hAI analysts 7% (3)News 5 todayNews
- match: MrBeast
- match: MrBeast
- match: MrBeast
- match: MrBeast · video
- match: MrBeast
- match: MrBeast
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AI research
What decides it
Resolves on the YouTube 'views' counter for MrBeast's next long-form video, read once 24 hours have passed since posting; Shorts, previews and other clips do not count. If no video is posted by Nov 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the lowest bracket wins, which a 'less than 30 million' bracket would be.
Latest
The channel's Videos tab lists the Oct 3 grocery store video as the newest long-form upload, at about 257.7 million views; no newer long-form video was listed.
www.youtube.com +1Total views to date: "I Granted 100 Kids Their Biggest Wish!" (Jul 25) 68.6 million; "I Built A City To Save Kids From Illegal Labor" (Sep 19) 100.6 million.
www.youtube.com +1Dexerto: MrBeast's dashboard showed "Eat Everything In A Grocery Store, Win $1,000,000" (posted Oct 3) at over 70 million views in its first day, which he called his most viewed video ever in 24 hours.
www.dexerto.com
Case for Yes
Day-one views vary by video: the Jul 25 upload has 68.6 million total views after about 12 weeks, so its first day was a fraction of that; a missed upload through Nov 30 also resolves to the lowest bracket.
Case for No
The latest video drew over 70 million first-day views per MrBeast's dashboard, more than double 30 million; all of the last six uploads have 68 million or more total views; uploads have arrived every two weeks since July.
What to watch next Saturday Oct 17 at 9 AM PT would continue the two-week upload pattern, though no date is announced; then the 24-hour view count of the first long-form video posted.
Full research
What decides it
Resolves on the YouTube 'views' counter for MrBeast's next long-form video, read once 24 hours have passed since posting; Shorts, previews and other clips do not count. If no video is posted by Nov 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the lowest bracket wins, which a 'less than 30 million' bracket would be. A value exactly on a boundary goes to the higher bracket, so exactly 30 million is not 'less than 30 million'.
Earlier
MrBeast's last six long-form uploads were posted on Jul 25, Aug 8, Aug 22, Sep 5, Sep 19 and Oct 3, 2026, each a Saturday at 9:00 AM PT, two weeks apart.
www.youtube.com +3
Sources
- MrBeast - YouTube (Videos) · www.youtube.com
- Dexerto: MrBeast breaks his YouTube views record with $1 million grocery store challenge · www.dexerto.com
- Eat Everything In A Grocery Store, Win $1,000,000 · www.youtube.com
- I Granted 100 Kids Their Biggest Wish! · www.youtube.com
- I Built A City To Save Kids From Illegal Labor · www.youtube.com
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
7%
2 pts below the market · 3 AI analysts
All 3, with track records
AI analysts
- 7%
- 10%
- 5%
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 24 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 24 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video to be posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
