MarketsCrypto
What price will Bitcoin hit on October 29?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN3 levels openResearch 21m ago
↑ 87,000 <1%↑ 86,000 <1%↑ 85,000 <1%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
3 levels open
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
3 options trading. +12 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
↑ 87,000<1%1%+1
↑ 86,000<1%1%+1
↑ 85,000<1%1%+1
AI analysts' average · ↑ 85,000
1%
1 pts above the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 424 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- ↑ 85,000 resolves Yes if Bitcoin reaches (↑ options) or dips to (↓ options) that price at some point on October 29, 2026. The rules published for this market say only 'What price will Bitcoin hit on October 29?'. They name no price source, time zone or cut-off.
- Watch out
- The rules give no resolution source, no time zone for 'October 29' and no definition of what counts as hitting a price. The upside options are 'reach' and the downside options are 'dip to'.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1-minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) on the date specified in the title, between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
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