MarketsMovies & TV
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 55 million or more views in week 1?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 2h ago
19% chance
−5.0 pts 24hAI analysts 20% (3)AI research
What decides it
Settles on the YouTube views counter of MrBeast Gaming's next long-form video once 168 hours have passed since posting; Shorts and previews do not count, and it cannot settle before the 168 hours end. The first long-form upload since Sep 26 went up 2026-10-10 at 16:00 UTC, so its window closes about 2026-10-17 16:00 UTC (12:00 PM ET), in line with this market's trading end; this brief treats it as the referenced video.
Latest
At 00:21 UTC, about 104 hours after posting, the video's page showed 45,222,172 views; at 00:36 UTC it showed 45,250,884.
www.youtube.comThe previous long-form video, "I Found My 13 Year Old Minecraft World" (posted Sep 26), showed 44,361,401 lifetime views after about 18 days.
www.youtube.com"I Survived 100 Days on One Block" (posted Sep 12) showed 60,322,690 lifetime views after about 32 days.
www.youtube.com
Case for Yes
About 104 hours in, the video had passed 45.2 million views, already above the previous long-form upload's lifetime total (44.4 million after 18 days), and it gained about 29,000 views between two readings 15 minutes apart early on Oct 15 UTC.
Case for No
At 00:36 UTC on Oct 15 it was still about 9.75 million views short of 55 million with roughly 63 hours of the window left; the Sep 26 video has 44.4 million lifetime views and the Sep 12 video 60.3 million after about 32 days.
What to watch next The views counter around 2026-10-17 16:00 UTC (12:00 PM ET), when the 168 hours end; readings on Oct 16-17 show whether the hourly gain holds.
Full research
What decides it
Settles on the YouTube views counter of MrBeast Gaming's next long-form video once 168 hours have passed since posting; Shorts and previews do not count, and it cannot settle before the 168 hours end. The first long-form upload since Sep 26 went up 2026-10-10 at 16:00 UTC, so its window closes about 2026-10-17 16:00 UTC (12:00 PM ET), in line with this market's trading end; this brief treats it as the referenced video. 55 million or more views at that point is Yes.
Earlier
MrBeast Gaming published the long-form video "$10,000 Every Day You Survive In Minecraft" at 09:00 PT (16:00 UTC); the channel's Videos tab lists no long-form upload after it.
www.youtube.com +1The channel's previous upload, "First To Mine A Diamond, Keeps It!", was a Short, a format the rules exclude.
www.youtube.com
Sources
- $10,000 Every Day You Survive In Minecraft - MrBeast Gaming (YouTube) · www.youtube.com
- MrBeast Gaming - Videos (YouTube) · www.youtube.com
- First To Mine A Diamond, Keeps It! - MrBeast Gaming Short (YouTube) · www.youtube.com
- I Found My 13 Year Old Minecraft World - MrBeast Gaming (YouTube) · www.youtube.com
- I Survived 100 Days on One Block - MrBeast Gaming (YouTube) · www.youtube.com
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
20%
1 pts above the market · 3 AI analysts
All 3, with track records
AI analysts
- 20%
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- 20%
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast Gaming gets in the first 168 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 168 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If MrBeast Gaming does not post a YouTube video by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market is MrBeast Gaming's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeastGaming), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers to MrBeast Gaming's next video to be posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
