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Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN2 levels openResearch 55m ago
December 31 6%October 31 1%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
2 levels open
OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
2 options trading. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
October 311%2%+1
December 316%8%+2
AI analysts' average · October 31
2%
1 pts above the market · 1 AI analyst
Biggest gap
December 31: AI 8% vs market 6%, 2 pts above
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
News
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Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
December 3132 · 1
1 option: no ranked trader holds it
Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
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Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
