MarketsClimate
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on October 16?
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OPENResearch 2h ago
38% chance
+4.0 pts 24hNews 40 todayNews
- match: Houston
- match: Houston
- match: Houston
- match: Houston
- match: Houston
- match: Houston
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AI research
What decides it
Yes only if the highest whole-degree °F "Temp" in NWS hourly data for Hobby Airport (KHOU) on Oct 16 is 78 or 79, read from the weather.gov timeseries page via "Show Hourly Data". Traps: Oct 16 is a cold-front day, so the day's high can come near midnight or before the front rather than in the afternoon; only the hourly readings count, not 5-minute ones; Hobby is not Bush Intercontinental (IAH).
Latest
NWS Houston/Galveston discussion: a cold front pushes into SE Texas on Friday, reaching College Station early in the morning and moving off the coast by early afternoon; guidance trended toward a faster front.
api.weather.govNWS point forecast for the Hobby Airport area: Friday high near 82, with temperatures falling to around 78 in the afternoon; north wind 10 to 20 mph, gusts to 35 mph; showers and storms possible before 1pm.
api.weather.govNWS hourly forecast for the same gridpoint (HGX 66,89): 78°F at midnight starting Oct 16, 74–76°F from 1 to 10 AM, a peak of 80°F at 2–3 PM CDT, then 78°F at 5 PM.
api.weather.gov
Case for Yes
NWS expects temperatures to fall to around 78 on Friday afternoon. Its hourly forecast has 78°F at midnight and 78–80°F from noon to 5 PM, and the nearby IAH forecast high is 79.
Case for No
The NWS daily forecast high near 82 and the hourly peak of 80°F are both above the bracket. A faster front, which guidance was trending toward, could instead keep the day's readings below 78.
What to watch next NWS forecast and discussion updates on Thursday Oct 15, then the front's arrival time at Hobby on Friday morning. The day settles once the first Oct 17 reading appears on the KHOU timeseries page.
Full research
What decides it
Yes only if the highest whole-degree °F "Temp" in NWS hourly data for Hobby Airport (KHOU) on Oct 16 is 78 or 79, read from the weather.gov timeseries page via "Show Hourly Data". Traps: Oct 16 is a cold-front day, so the day's high can come near midnight or before the front rather than in the afternoon; only the hourly readings count, not 5-minute ones; Hobby is not Bush Intercontinental (IAH). Revisions count until the first Oct 17 reading posts; Weather Underground is the fallback if NOAA data is missing.
Earlier
NWS preliminary point temperatures list a Friday high of 79 for Houston IAH (Bush Intercontinental), a different station from Hobby.
api.weather.govNWS forecast for Thursday Oct 15 at the Hobby area: high near 91; Thursday night low around 72 with temperatures rising to around 75 overnight.
api.weather.gov
Sources
- NWS Houston/Galveston Area Forecast Discussion, 557 PM CDT Oct 14 2026 · api.weather.gov
- NWS point forecast, Houston Hobby area (HGX 66,89) · api.weather.gov
- NWS hourly forecast, Houston Hobby area (HGX 66,89) · api.weather.gov
Research, not advice.
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
