MarketsPolitics
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN20 levels openResearch 1d ago
↑ 4.25% 70% ↓ 3.25% 2% ↓ 1.5% 2% ↑ 5.5% 2%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
20 levels open
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
20 options trading.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
↑ 5.5%2%——
↑ 5.25%2%——
↑ 5.0%2%——
↑ 4.75%2%5%+3
↑ 4.5%2%12%+10
↑ 4.25%70%78%+8
+14 more options
AI analysts' average · ↓ 0.5%
—
Your forecast on ↓ 0.5%
Public, on your forecaster record, beside the price now.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
↑ 4.25%Yes ratehikesratehikes: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 3 ratehikesratehikes: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1CDAP1CDAP1: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 03 · 0
↑ 4.5%Yes tinman2tinman2: Tier 2, #45 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No CDAP1CDAP1: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 tinman2tinman2: Tier 2, #45 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 CDAP1CDAP1: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 · 1
↓ 3.25%Yes TheReturnOfDarthMaulTheReturnOfDarthMaul: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No ratehikesratehikes: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 TheReturnOfDarthMaulTheReturnOfDarthMaul: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 ratehikesratehikes: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 · 1
↓ 2.75%No CDAP1CDAP1: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 CDAP1CDAP1: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
14 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if the target federal funds range's lower bound reaches 0.5% or lower at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET, according to the Federal Reserve's official website; otherwise No. Emergency cuts count and qualifying publication can trigger immediate resolution.
- Watch out
- Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside regularly scheduled meetings count. The deadline is December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET, rather than the end of that day.
- Resolution criteria
- The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
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